The S&P 500 Won’t Average 10% Annual Returns For The Next 10 Years

Goldman Sachs Estimates
Long-Term Index Returns
of Just 4–5% per Year

Goldman Sachs published a landmark research paper in October 2024 forecasting significantly lower long-term returns for U.S. equities. The message was clear: the S&P 500 is unlikely to repeat its past performance over the next 10–15 years.

Market Concentration
Just a handful of mega-cap tech stocks now drive most of the index’s gains.

Valuations Are Stretched
The S&P 500 trades at historically high price-to-earnings ratios.

Earnings Growth Slowing
Rising rates and tighter economic conditions will limit future profit growth.

Yields Are Low
With dividends at multi-decade lows, reinvested income won’t do the heavy lifting.
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Howard Marks Believes
Index’s Average Annual
Returns Will Be Between
-2% and 2%

Howard Marks has long warned that periods of strong market returns are often followed by long stretches of underperformance. With valuations high and interest rates no longer near zero, Marks believes passive investing is now dangerous complacency.

Valuations Matter More Than Ever
Buying expensive assets means accepting weaker future returns.

Past Returns Won’t Repeat
The stimulus-driven bull run of the 2010s is over.

Passive Flows Distort Markets
Capital is being funneled into the biggest companies regardless of fundamentals.
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Mohnish Pabrai Predicts
S&P 500 Returns Will Be
Less Than 3% Annually
for the Next Decade

According to Pabrai, today’s S&P 500 is priced for disappointment. With valuations high and concentration risk rising, the broad index offers little upside. Instead, he champions a more focused approach: invest like the world's best stock pickers.

S&P 500 Is Too Expensive
You're paying a premium for average performance.

S&P 500 Is Too Concentrated
Tech giants make up a disproportionate share of the index.

S&P 500 Is Too Passive
There's no edge in owning everything.
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What Low S&P 500 Returns
Mean for Your Long-Term
Wealth

When the most respected names in finance—Goldman Sachs, Howard Marks, and Mohnish Pabrai—are all warning the same thing, it’s a clear pattern. We believe the S&P 500 is unlikely to deliver the returns investors have come to expect because it's overvalued and overly concentrated.

We believe you can’t count on passive index investing to deliver real wealth in a low-return era. We believe at Super Value Investors we give you the solution to outperform the market by investing with a research-led copycat investing strategy's of the best value investors in the world.

Copycat Wealth Memberships

Model Portfolio

Number of Portfolios

1

1

3

Portfolio Allocation

Equally Weighted

Allocation Based

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Acces Period

1 Year

1 Year

1 Year

Copycat Research

Super Investors

7

11

14

Copycat Portfolios
(2014- 2023)

4

12

30

Copycat Portfolios with Annual Returns Above 18%

0 (0%)

8 (75%)

20 (66%)

Annual Returns of Portfolios (2014-2023)

14.39% – 16.35%

14.39% – 21.50%

14.39% – 24.50%

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Design Interactions

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Categories

Business, Technology

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1 User

DESIGN INTERACTIONS

Lottie Animation

3 months

Design Interactions

3 months

DESIGN INTERACTIONS

Clones

Categories

-

ACCOUNTS

Clones

Up to 20 clones per month

Categories

Business, Technology

User Limit

1 User

DESIGN INTERACTIONS

Lottie Animation

3 months

Design Interactions

3 months

DESIGN INTERACTIONS

Clones

Categories

-

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